In a battle of mediocre pitchers, we’re going to the NL West with today’s free MLB pick…

Today’s Free MLB Pick is:

Team                                     Line                                  Opponent

Mets                                   +200                                 at Diamondbacks

It’s Oliver Perez (L), vs John Garland (R) in this afternoon matchup.  Both pitchers are average at best and both teams are heading on vacation as soon as the regular season ends.  John Garland is consistently inconsistent.  He’s due for another blow up game.  He’s 2-2 in his last 6 starts and gives up a bunch of hits.  He was given a 5-0 lead in his last start and proceeded to give it away.  Oliver Perez probably doesn’t even belong in the Big Leagues, but this game is going to be more about John Garland and the Dbacks poor play against lefties that Perez.  The Dbacks make most lefties look like hall of famers.  Garland will give up his usual handful of runs in 7 or less innings and it should be enough to do the Dbacks in against a left-hander.  Take the Mets +200 in this one!

Today’s free picks, that’s right PICKS come to you from tonights UFC 101.  We were 2-0 on our UFC 100 picks with Brock Lesnar and George St Pierre coming out victorious in fairly easy wins.  Now those picks were pretty heavy favorites.  Tonight we have a couple of upsets brewing and we’re going to give you 2 picks for FREE.  All lines are from Bodog.

Today’s Free UFC Picks are:

Fighter                                  Line                                  Opponent

Florian                                  +220                                   Penn

Griffin                                    +260                                  Silva

Let’s start with Florian vs Penn.  BJ Penn is tough, but he loses in most fights where he fights an elite fighter.  He’s lost to St Pierre twice, Matt Hughes 1 out of 2 and Jens Pulver 1 out of 2.  So he’s 2-4 against the elite of the division.  Now the $220 question is… is Florian an elite fighter?  With his incredible ground game and his ability to do something that is very rare in MMA, cause damage from the guard, I think he is.  Look for Florian to take this match to the ground as early and often as possible.  Make no mistake about it, Riggs wants to stand and trade.  I just don’t think he’s going to get that many chances to do it.  Take Florian in the upset at +220

Now to Griffin vs Silva.  Let me start by saying Silva is a monster.  A flat out fighting machine.  Take this action if you are took Florian and won or if you are up from other bets and have a little bit of money to take a shot with.  At this point I would call Silva ALMOST un-beatable.  It is going to take an amazing effort and a specific strategy to beat him.  There are not many fighters in the world that have the brains, will and/or skills to pull of a win against Silva.  Unfortunately for Silva, I think the one opponent that can do everything it takes to beat him is facing him tonight.  Forrest Griffin does not have the same skill level as Silva.  He never has and he never will.  What Forrest has is a will to win and enough talent to make it happen.  When he chooses to train for a specific game plan and strategy and chooses to stick to it, he is tough to beat.  When he goes back to what is natural to him, brawling, he doesn’t fair as well.  Obviously at +260 he shouldn’t win this fight.  But with what I see as a real good chance to win big on the Florian fight, I’d take some of that winnings and place it on Griffin.  I see Griffin immediately trying to take Silva down.  At that point it’s all going to be about the ground and pound.  Griffin will try and emulate exactly what Lesnar did.  More like a smother and pound.  He will attempt to wear Silva out and cause damage little by little while laying on top of him from guard and side control.  Of course he’ll have to be very careful of submissions, but if he can indeed get Silva down to the ground once per round, I see this going to Griffin in a HUGE upset.  Take Griffin +260 in you took Florian and got the win.

Narrow win yesterday with the D-Backs, but a win nonetheless.  We’ve scoured the stats to find you another  underdog that has a great chance to win…

Today’s Free MLB Pick is:

Team                                     Line                                  Opponent

Metss                                   +130                                 at Padres

I love this pick and I’m not really sure why a team that can’t score and has a  so-so pitcher going would be such a large favorite.  Yes, Clayton Richard has been pitching very well lately for the Padres, but he still gives up a lot of baserunners, he’s still not a big strikeout guy (which you need to get out of jams) and he’s still pitching for the Padres.

For the Mets it’s the ageless Livan Hernandez.  Now he’s by no means a top pitcher anymore, but it’s going to be the Mets bats that make the difference in this one.  Hernandez will get you 6 or 7 innings and always keep the game in reach.  Sheffield is hitting .308 against lefties this year.  Delgado .333, Beltran .357 and they have 3 others hitting .300 or above.  Take the Mets +130 in this one!

Today’s Free MLB Pick is:

Team                                     Line                                  Opponent

Diamondbacks                 Even                                 at Pirates

The Diamondbacks are on a little bit of a hot streak, as are a handful of their regulars.  They are definitely a better team then they’ve shown this year and they might just be putting it together now, although it’s obviously too little, too late.  The Pirates are not a good team and are 2-8 in their last 10.  The have Ross Ohlendorf pitching tonight.  Ross is a pretty decent young pitcher, but he’s come into some control issues all of a sudden and has not been striking out as many batters as he did earlier in the season.  I’m thinking he might be running through a tired arm period and that is not good going up against the streaking D-Backs.

Doug Davis goes for the Diamondbacks today and he is… Doug Davis.  He’s going to pitch late into the game.  He’s going to give up a few runs and a homerun or two.  But he’s going to give you a chance to win if you can score some runs.  That’s where Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton, Stephen Drew and Miguel Montero come in.  They are all hot at the same time.  Take the Diamondback at Even Money or a very slight underdog in this one.

Today’s Free MLB Pick is:

Team                           Line                                  Opponent

Giants                        -128                                     Astros

It’s Matt Cain vs Mike Hampton this evening in Houston.  Cain has been un-hittable in his last 3 outings, with a 2-0 record and 0.78 ERA, while Hampton can’t get anyone out.  Hampton is 1-2 with a 9.98 ERA in his last 3.  I don’t see this one going any different than advertised.  Cain will be very stubborn giving up hits while pitching deep into the game.  Look for the Giants right handed power to do some damage to Hampton as his walks and hits to innings pitched ratio is over 1.5 for the season.  I almost feel like I should give up a run and a half in this one, but I’ll stick with the basic line and take the Giants -128.

Someone remind me via comment next time I pick a big home favorite.  I hate picking them and I make my money picking road underdogs!  Man I hate when I try and get smart.  Still up for the year, last few weeks, last 2 days… but I hate losing!  Back to basics and it’s a huge one…

Today’s Free MLB Pick is:

Team                           Line                                  Opponent

A’s                                +164                                   at Red Sox

A’s                               +116 (Under 9)               at Red Sox

Ok boys and girls, what I want you to do.  Whatever you normally would wager on a game, bet one forth to half on this  2 team parlay.  Right now at Pinnacle you can get this parlay for 4.7 to 1.  Bet $100 get $470, bet $50 get $235, etc.

I feel like the A’s have a great chance in this one in what I think is going to turn out to be a well pitched game.  It’s Brett Anderson vs Brad Penny.  Anderson has been hot lately, with a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 1.13 ERA in 2 games (16 innings) against the Red Sox this year.  Brad Penny has not been quite as good lately but with the pressure of the Yankees taking over first place and his home ERA being 1.5 runs less than his road ERA, I think he’s going to turn in a good performance.

This is anything but a sure pick, but at over 4-1, I like my chances on this one.  I think the odds the bookmaker have on the A’s winning (only about a 33% chance) are way off.  Take the A’s and under 9 for a huge win!

Huge win yesterday on our free pick for you as we nailed a +145 winner!  We’re going to take those winnings and risk them on a big home favorite today.

Today’s Free MLB Pick is:

Team                           Line                                  Opponent

at Reds                        -139                                   Padres

Its Keven Correia vs Bronson Arroyo.  Arroyo has been on fire lately, pitching to a 2-1 record with a 2.11 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Combine this hot streak with playing against a team that can’t score runs and facing a pitcher that can’t get people out and you’ve got yourself a winner.  I hate picking games that are such a favorite because it just kills you when you lose, but I just don’t see this one going that way.  Take the Reds -139 in this one.

I slight disclaimer on this one today.  It’s a pick that’s more of a hunch and value than anything that pops out on paper.  It’s not very often you can find a home underdog as big as this one between two fairly equal teams.  In general, betting home underdogs is a winner.  If you would have bet just home underdogs for the last 5 years, you would have made a 10% profit on over 6,000 bets.

Today’s Free MLB Pick is:

Team                           Line                                  Opponent

at Mets                       +146                                  Rockies

In the battle of average teams and average pitchers, where both teams have won 2 straight games, I like the Mets.  You can not win money betting baseball if you bet favorites.  The way to make money is to win about 50% of the time (it can be done at even less, but heck we’re at about 56% for the year) and do it while picking underdogs.  Win over $100 every time you win and lose only $100 when you lose… simple math if you can pull it off.

Like a  poker bet, I like the “pot odds” on this one.  I’d call it a 50/50 matchup with the odds saying the Rockies have a 60% chance to win.  Take the Mets if you are on a recent winning streak or up for the year.  I think this is a great value bet, and we have a pretty good chance of sneaking out a big win.

Tim Lincecum as an underdog????  Are you kidding me?

Today’s Free MLB Pick is:

Team                           Line                                  Opponent

Giants                          +105                               at Braves

If Tim Lincecum pitched for a college team he’d have a chance to win against the Braves.  The fact is, he pitches for the Giants, who are a pretty good MLB team.  To get +105 with a healthy Tim Lincecum pitching is all I need to know.  The fact that he’s 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last 3 starts or 1-0 this year against the Braves pitching 8 innings of scoreless ball or 5-0 career against the Braves with a 2.08 ERA is icing on the cake.  Take the Giants as an underdog at Pinnacle, Skybook, Interrops or anywhere else you can get it.  Giants +105 !

Ouch.  The Phillies hammered me yesterday, breaking our 6 game win streak.  Back to the winning ways today with an American League game.

Today’s Free MLB Pick is:

Team                           Line                                  Opponent

at A’s                           -128                                     Twins

It’s Braden vs Swarzak today.  Braden has done very well against  the Twins in his careen, sporting a 2.89 ERA over 3 games.  He’s not the best pitcher in the League, but he’s not too bad.  Luckily, he’s facing Anthony Swarzak, who is only pitching in his 7th Major League game ever.  Swarzak got beat up a little the last time he faced the A’s earlier this year, giving up 4 hits and 3 ER in less than 4 innings.

I think Braden rebounds from a poor start in his last outing and gets back to the way he was pitching the previous 5 games before that and shuts down the Twins.  Take the A’s -128 at home in this one.