I slight disclaimer on this one today. It’s a pick that’s more of a hunch and value than anything that pops out on paper. It’s not very often you can find a home underdog as big as this one between two fairly equal teams. In general, betting home underdogs is a winner. If you would have bet just home underdogs for the last 5 years, you would have made a 10% profit on over 6,000 bets.
Today’s Free MLB Pick is:
Team Line Opponent
at Mets +146 Rockies
In the battle of average teams and average pitchers, where both teams have won 2 straight games, I like the Mets. You can not win money betting baseball if you bet favorites. The way to make money is to win about 50% of the time (it can be done at even less, but heck we’re at about 56% for the year) and do it while picking underdogs. Win over $100 every time you win and lose only $100 when you lose… simple math if you can pull it off.
Like a poker bet, I like the “pot odds” on this one. I’d call it a 50/50 matchup with the odds saying the Rockies have a 60% chance to win. Take the Mets if you are on a recent winning streak or up for the year. I think this is a great value bet, and we have a pretty good chance of sneaking out a big win.
