Someone remind me via comment next time I pick a big home favorite.  I hate picking them and I make my money picking road underdogs!  Man I hate when I try and get smart.  Still up for the year, last few weeks, last 2 days… but I hate losing!  Back to basics and it’s a huge one…

Today’s Free MLB Pick is:

Team                           Line                                  Opponent

A’s                                +164                                   at Red Sox

A’s                               +116 (Under 9)               at Red Sox

Ok boys and girls, what I want you to do.  Whatever you normally would wager on a game, bet one forth to half on this  2 team parlay.  Right now at Pinnacle you can get this parlay for 4.7 to 1.  Bet $100 get $470, bet $50 get $235, etc.

I feel like the A’s have a great chance in this one in what I think is going to turn out to be a well pitched game.  It’s Brett Anderson vs Brad Penny.  Anderson has been hot lately, with a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 1.13 ERA in 2 games (16 innings) against the Red Sox this year.  Brad Penny has not been quite as good lately but with the pressure of the Yankees taking over first place and his home ERA being 1.5 runs less than his road ERA, I think he’s going to turn in a good performance.

This is anything but a sure pick, but at over 4-1, I like my chances on this one.  I think the odds the bookmaker have on the A’s winning (only about a 33% chance) are way off.  Take the A’s and under 9 for a huge win!

Huge win yesterday on our free pick for you as we nailed a +145 winner!  We’re going to take those winnings and risk them on a big home favorite today.

Today’s Free MLB Pick is:

Team                           Line                                  Opponent

at Reds                        -139                                   Padres

Its Keven Correia vs Bronson Arroyo.  Arroyo has been on fire lately, pitching to a 2-1 record with a 2.11 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Combine this hot streak with playing against a team that can’t score runs and facing a pitcher that can’t get people out and you’ve got yourself a winner.  I hate picking games that are such a favorite because it just kills you when you lose, but I just don’t see this one going that way.  Take the Reds -139 in this one.

I slight disclaimer on this one today.  It’s a pick that’s more of a hunch and value than anything that pops out on paper.  It’s not very often you can find a home underdog as big as this one between two fairly equal teams.  In general, betting home underdogs is a winner.  If you would have bet just home underdogs for the last 5 years, you would have made a 10% profit on over 6,000 bets.

Today’s Free MLB Pick is:

Team                           Line                                  Opponent

at Mets                       +146                                  Rockies

In the battle of average teams and average pitchers, where both teams have won 2 straight games, I like the Mets.  You can not win money betting baseball if you bet favorites.  The way to make money is to win about 50% of the time (it can be done at even less, but heck we’re at about 56% for the year) and do it while picking underdogs.  Win over $100 every time you win and lose only $100 when you lose… simple math if you can pull it off.

Like a  poker bet, I like the “pot odds” on this one.  I’d call it a 50/50 matchup with the odds saying the Rockies have a 60% chance to win.  Take the Mets if you are on a recent winning streak or up for the year.  I think this is a great value bet, and we have a pretty good chance of sneaking out a big win.